Sunday, November 02, 2008

U.S. election prediction

Back in April, I drew up six potential electoral maps. These were my predictions for the likely, best and worst case scenarios in McCain-Clinton and McCain-Obama match ups.

As I mentioned in my post the other day, McCain has badly fumbled the campaign and I forsee the best case scenario coming for Barack Obama.

My April scenario for Obama included him picking up Alaska in the best case, which is not going to happen thanks to Palin being on the ticket. So rather than the 325-213 win I thought would be his best case, I'll make it 322-216.

Obama will hold all Kerry states plus pick up: Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia.


Rob said...

Obama Bush state pick-ups: CO, VA, NC, OH, IA, NV, NM , MT, FL, and the Nebraska 2nd district for 357
Electoral votes.

The election will be over @ 8:30 PM Marysville time when the networks call Virginia for Obama.

Odds of Obama beating Clinton 92
(370): 4 to 1.

Rob said...

I'll add this fun fact for the day:

Kerry won Minnesota; however one Elector cast a vote for Dem. Vice-President candidate John Edwards. It may have been unintentional, as this ballot also voted for John Edwards as Vice-President

nbpolitico said...

NC and MT but not MO?

Rob said...

MT is based on demoralized GOP base, an incumbent Dem senator up for re-election, and a two or three point Ron Paul steal.

I think NC is much more likely to go blue than MO. I've heard much more about massive early turnout in NC, and I think the Elizabeth Dole ads are going to backfire on the GOP.

I just don't have the same feel for Missouri.

nbpolitico said...

The times they are a changin' ;) Back in April you said:
Do you honestly see no hope for Obama in Missoura? I would think its proximity to So. Illinois would bring some sort of carryover "hometown" boy feeling into the mix.

NB taxpayer said...

Mac is back once again

A late poll shows McCain making major last minutes strides to pull even with Sen. Barack Obama in seven key states:

Virginia (within the margin of error), Pennsylvania (margin of error), Florida (leading by one), Missouri (dead heat), Ohio (dead heat), North Carolina (up by one) and Colorado (margin of error).

If some of the blue collar Hillary supporters (who have difficulty with Obama) move over to McCain, the youth vote doesn't turn out (just as it did in 2004. Remember? John Kerry was going to win with all the amazing youth voters. We all know how that ended.) and the reverse Bradley effect (Yeldarb) doesn't materialize in Obama's favour, then this thing will be wide open and we could be in for a longer night then Rob anticipates on Tuesday night.

nbpolitico said...

That is possible, but pretty unlikely. My read of the map shows Obama with 266 in the bag. McCain has to run the table with the rest to win.

Rob said...

I think its obvious anything I said in April is well beyond my own personal statute of limitations. I've also since learned that the "Obama is my homeboy" effect will be much stronger in NW Indiana than it is in Missouri.

Interesting note, from 538:

Obama wins election on 85% of simulations where he loses OH

Obama wins election on 84% of simulations where he loses both OH & FL.

Obama loses election 90% of the simulations where he loses OH + FL + PA.

Pennsylvania is truly the keystone of an Obama coalition. He can sustain big losses in other battlegrounds while holding that state.

nbpolitico said...

Yes, I was just teasing. I had noticed that comment when I pulled up my April prediction ;)

NB taxpayer said...

I see Virginia going McCain's way (so it will last longer into the night), however, he will lose in Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Montana and New Mexico making it almost impossible to garner a winning combination to the white house.