Monday, November 03, 2008

Tomorrow's watching guide tonight!

Quite interestingly there are four swing states whose polls close early. The results in these states, which close at 8 p.m. Atlantic time, could predict the election. They are:
  • New Hampshire
  • Virginia
  • North Carolina
  • Florida
With the possible exception of New Hampshire, it is very unlikely that the networks will be able to call any of these states based on exit polls alone.

If Obama wins either North Carolina or Florida, he has almost certainly won the election. If he wins them both, he has won the election, probably in a landslide.

If McCain holds those two southern states and wins one of New Hampshire and Virginia, he has a small chance to win. If he wins all four stay tuned for a long night.

My read of the map shows Obama with 266 electoral votes in the bag, meaning McCain has to win all of the states in play (8 by my reading) to win the election.

Here is my take of the map:


McCain is likely to win some of these states, particularly West Virginia and to a lesser extent Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina. However, he must win them all to win the election.

It is also possible that Obama may win some of the states coloured red but, should he win any of them, he'll likely win all of the swing states as well and be headed to a landslide in the neighbourhood of 400 electoral votes.

It is also possible that McCain may win some of the states coloured blue, i.e. Nevada and Virginia (and if his campaign schedule is to be believed and the polls discarded Iowa). However, if he wins any of those states, I will expect him to have run the table with these and they'll be gravy.

5 comments:

NB taxpayer said...

The Greek (center-right) newspaper Avriani features a big photograph of Obama with the headline: "The End of Jewish Domination in the United States."

What? Anyone care to take a stab.

Here's the link.

Rob said...

Try these stereotypes on for size, from Kenya:

"...innovations have come up to allow married couples to continue enjoying sex after birth. This is because men in this region tend not to well endowed in the sex department and to make the matter worse, the children have relatively big heads at birth."

NB taxpayer said...

I still don't get it. Is the Avriani newspaper suggesting that Obama (b/c of his alleged association with the Muslim faith as a boy/and his middle name) will be anti-Isreal (and anti-Jewish).

They didn't come out and say it, but that seems to be what's being applied here.

NB taxpayer said...

I dug this old post out in hopes that an Obama presidency would mean more renewable fuel development.

It only takes 4 steps.

NB taxpayer said...

CNN + Jessica Yellin + Wolf + holograms = comedy gold

At one point I thought wolf was going to kiss her. lol