Sunday, March 02, 2008

This week's predictions

Monday in Alberta:
  • Ed Stemach's Progressive Conservatives: 47 (majority)

  • Kevin Taft's Alberta Liberals: 26

  • Paul Hinman's Wildrose Alliance: 5

  • Brian Mason's NDP: 4

  • Others: 1
Tuesday in America:
  • Texas: Clinton may win the popular vote in the primary but not necessarily the delegates; Obama will win the most votes and most delegates in the caucus. Confused? It's complicated.

  • Ohio: Obama will win narrowly.

  • Rhode Island: Clinton will win by single digits.

  • Vermont: Obama will win by double digits.
If Clinton manages to win both Ohio and Texas (I doubt she can win Texas outright, but it could be enough of a moral victory for her to move on if she wins the primary), Clinton should beware the Ides of March(ish) as she is sure to lose BIG in both Mississippi and Wyonming on March 11. I am not sure how she holds on for the six week campaign in Pennsylvania if she has lost 14 out of 17 contests in a row, fought one to a draw and won only two (this would assume a win in Ohio and Rhode Island and a win in the Texas primary but loss in the caucus and delegate total). As I wrote a couple of weeks ago, it is all over for Clinton, it is just a matter of when. If she is smart, she will go gracefully and politely after Tuesday, which will still allow her to either a) have a good shot at the nomination in 2012; or b) become Senate Majority Leader, which has always seemed to be her "plan B". If she sticks in much longer, I think she loses both of those fall back options.


Rob said...

I agree with the Alberta prognosis, which disappoints me, although 4 for the NDP seems a bit much. The Liberals would require a VERY charismatic leader to dent the Tories armour, and I don't think Kevin Taft is up for it. I'd always thought Dave Bronconnier would make a decent Leader, as he's VERY popular in Calgary.

The only other way is to actually change the name of the Alberta Liberal Party, and remove any mention of the word Liberal. There's just too many people who won't touch the Liberals with a ten foot pole in that province.

Regarding Tuesday, I see Obama winning the pop vote and the most delegates in Texas, a five point HRC win in Ohio, and Obama taking the New England states. Obama actually visited Rhode Island, which demonstrates a bit of confidence on his part.

herringchoker said... really screwed the pooch on that one...

nbpolitico said...

One might go so far as to say I let the pooch do the screwin'. Ah well, at least I was in good company.

Signs point to my predictins for tonight (Tuesday) being just as wrong.

I'm used to it ;)

Neal Ford said...

I'm predicting that HRC will win by 3 points in TX, by 7 in OK by 10 in RI, while the Obamessiah will take Vermont by at least 4 pts.

It is my hope that that'swhat happens, given that I would like to see the Dems fighting it out for a long, long time, and tearing themselves asunder in the process, and give the GOP a real opportunity to get organized.

Good that the Oprah Obamessiah is finally getting some scrutiny, such a it is.

NB taxpayer said...

Don't worry NBP, I spoke to a friend of mine, an Alberta tory from Calgary, who saw Taft gaining more seats then what you predicted, especially in his neck of the woods. And that bugger voted for Stelmach! lol I wonder how many were like him?

Anyway, not to worry buddy, at the end of the day nobody predicted Taft would have close to as many seats in Calgary as he would in REDmonton. Nobody. Not even Kieran Leblanc.