Thursday, December 06, 2007

Predicting Iowa

Everyone here knows that I can't resist making predictions, today is 28 days - four weeks - from the Iowa caucuses for both U.S. parties.

My predictions are as follows:

Democrats
Edwards, Clinton, Obama, Biden, Richardson, Kucinich, Dodd, Gravel

I think that the numbers of the top four finishers will closely mirror those of the top four Democrats from 2004. Edwards will lead Clinton relatively comfortably, but there will be a fairly large gap between second and third while Biden will trail Obama by only about as much as Gephardt trailed Dean. The 2004 results are here for a reference. I don't mean to suggest the numbers will be the same as I suspect the bottom finishers will do a bit better than 1 or 2%; an example might be Edwards 34, Clinton 29, Obama 16, Biden 10.

Republicans
Romney, Huckabee, Thompson, Giuliani, Paul, McCain, Tancredo, Hunter

Romney will enjoy a healthy lead due to his strong organization, I would see Romney in the low-mid 30s and Huckabee in the low 20s.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

So now you see why he quiting

Anonymous said...

Obama will win for the Democrats, he's leading in Iowa and, if he can keep up the momentum, that will clinch him the nomination.

For the Republicans, I predict Huckabee and again from a strong Iowa finish. Many of Guiliani's views make evangelical Republicans uncomfortable and Romney is a phoney (he doesn't stand for anything he stood for 10 years ago).

If Republicans don't see this about Romney, then they're even dumber than I thought!

nbpolitico said...

My view is that Obama's campaign is a lot like Dean's campaign in 2004. He is strong in the polls heading into the caucus but his organization is built on a lot of students, newcomers and out-of-state voters, again like Dean. There seems to be an escalation in negative messaging between Obama and Clinton so they will both suffer. Clinton has a stronger organization to hold her in contention, and Edwards has the strongest organization anyway.

As for the Republicans, I just don't think Huckabee has the organization in place to deliver a win unless he is going into the caucus with a lead of 10 points or better.

Mushroom said...

I disagree with your assessment of Obama's campaign.

Obama has good people working for him in Iowa and money to burn, such as the Daleys in Chicago. Might as well use it if there is a danger your campaign ends after New Hampshire. Obama's ground crew in Iowa knows it is vital to get people out for the caucus. On the other hand, Hillary is still dependent on Vilsack's people to get people out for her. However, she is focusing more on New Hampshire and Nevada, where she has a big advantage over the others.

Edwards did well in 2004, due to the Independents going to the Democratic caucus since Bush was acclaimed for the GOP. Won't happen this time. Many are going to the GOP caucus to lodge a protest vote.

The Independents may help Huckabee beat Romney in Iowa. He is the anti-establishment candidate, and these people do have their day in the sun. All this points to Obama and Huckabee doing well in the caucus.

nbpolitico said...

Change Obama to Dean and Vilsack to Harkin and you could very well be recounting December 2003 instead of December 2007.

Indepedents are not allowed to vote in the caucus, though you can change your registration to Democratic at the caucus site, I doubt many independents would be comfortable doing that.

NB taxpayer said...

Nice predictions. I think Huckabee's campaign will lose a bit of momentum after a second place finish in Iowa. Why? Because much like in 2000 where McCain's victory stole momentum away from Senator Bill Bradley's campaign (who finished a couple of percentage points behind a sitting VP in Gore), a victory in Iowa for Edwards will propel many of the independents from NH into his camp and away from a surging Republican.

nbpolitico said...

Cool logic, NBT. Never thought of it that way but it makes a lot of sense.

RS said...

nbpolitico,

Very good predictions, can't say I would call them that different.

Up until mid-week I would have called Huckabee winning Iowa for the Republicans, but I do think Romney nailed the religion speech in Texas.

RS

RS said...

Looks like I was very wrong on Romney hitting the religion speech, Huckaboom keeps going and going. Might have peaked to soon, or could be on a run to a route.

Will be interesting the next couple of weeks.

RS

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