Sunday, March 25, 2007

Quebec prediction

This is just for fun, I am totally guessing with these numbers and running on my gut without any analysis whatsoever.

Parti québécois 57
Parti libéral du Québec 51
Action démocratique du Québec 17

However, Charest will continue as premier in exchange for implementing some policies of the ADQ similar to the arrangement between the Liberals and NDP in Ontario from 1985-1987 when the standings were PC 52, Lib 48, NDP 25.


Anonymous said...

How can Charest continue as premier if you put the Parti Québécois first in the ballot.

Brian in Calgary said...

How can Charest continue as premier if you put the Parti Québécois first in the ballot.

It could (and would) happen if the ADQ and Liberals came to an arrangement because it would be clear that Charest could command majority support in the National Assembly.

In the absence of such an arrangement, well Charest is nevertheless the Premier going into this election. He would be legally entitled to stay on as Premier unless and until his party was defeated in the National Assembly. That is, by the way, what happened to the Ontario Tory Premier Frank Miller after the 1985 Ontario election.

Anonymous said...

Charest's Liberals and Dumont's ADQ are the two varying degrees of right wing parties in Quebec, contrasting with the only social democrat party (Charest is on record for private medicare as is Dumont, for example). Charest has always been a Conservative, and Dumont will swing with the wind and tide, so I think your point is a good one.
Personally, I would reverse the first two in your prediction.

scott said...

I see the Progressive Conservatives...oops...I mean, the Quebec Liberals finishing on top just shy of a majority. Like in the last election, much of the ADQ support will end up spilling over into the Liberals in the 11th hour because they are afraid of electing a separatist government.

However, there is no doubt that Dumont's party will increase its seat count enough wherein they will be an official party after Monday's vote.

nbpolitico said...

Anon at 505... An election in our system only determines the members of the legislature, the government is not decided by an election. A premier and his government remain in office until they resign or are removed by the crown. If the PQ wins a majority, then Charest would have little choice but to resign and allow them to form a government. However, in a minority the number of seats is irrelevant. The incumbents are still in office and can try to face the House if they wish. Moreover, the party will the most seats is not often the best able to govern. Following the 1925 federal election, the Liberals had far less seats than the Conservatives but continued in office for a year. Eventually they lost confidence and the Tories formed a government but they only survived for 3 days despite having more seats.

Scott - you and I are of the same perspective in general. Many are predicting 25-30 for the ADQ which I think is too high due to, as you say, some of their vote shifting to the Liberals and also because they lack a strong GOTV organization.

richard said...

Here's a prediction: your site visits will go up if you just switch from blue text on black to black text on white. Sheesh.

nbpolitico said...

LOL, thanks Richard. But, this is the default template for blogspot, and I like the look.

Brian Cormier said...

I think the Liberals will pull out a squeaker and that the ADQ will collapse at the ballot box like they did in the last election. If Boisclair wins the most seats, the LG will have to call on him to form a government and then see where it goes from there. It would be very odd and against parliamentary tradition for Charest to try to hang on without the highest number of seats. If he loses the popular vote and doesn't get the highest number of seats, it would be absurd for him to try to make a case for his remaining premier without giving Boisclair a chance to get the confidence of the house first. I'm sure the PQ will pull out all the stops to please Dumont if the PQ gets the highest number of seats.

nbpolitico said...

I am suspecting that Charest will win the popular vote - as he did in 1998 - just not the most seats.

I don't think your understanding of parliamentary tradition is very clear. Charest remains the premier until he resigns or is removed by the LG. It would be an unprecedented use of reserve power for the LG to remove Charest if he could conceivably maintain the confidence of the legislature which would certainly be reasonable if the PLQ and ADQ hold between them a majority.

A full out coaltion between the PLQ and ADQ is also a possibility.

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