Federal election prediction

After pouring over polls, past election results and my gut instincts, I have predicted the results of Monday's election as follows:

Liberal 136
Conservative 134
NDP 33
BQ 32
Green 2
PPC 1

This was a surprise to me when I ran up the national tally, though it compares closely to what some of the poll aggretor / seat model types are finding.  In particular, I was surprised with the Greens.  With an uneducated guess, I would have put them in the high single digits, however the NDP surge in BC is likely very detrimental to the Greens and indeed the only sub-provincial polling breakdown I could find has the Greens running third on Vancouver Island which is where they would have been likely to win the most seats.

I arrived at my prediction with the following assumptions:

• near sweep of the BC Interior by the Conservatives
• three way (Lib-Con-NDP) split of the BC lower mainland
• three way (NDP-Con-Grn) split of Vancouver Island
• Conservative sweep of Alberta
• status quo (10 Con - 3 NDP - 1 Lib) in Saskatchewan
• Liberals lose 4 of their 7 seats in Manitoba with 2 each going to the Conservatives and NDP
• Liberal sweep of 416 area
• Liberal / Conservative split of 8 seats each in Eastern Ontario (including Ottawa)
• Conservative sweep of central Ontario
• rough split of 905 area with slight advantage to Liberals and NDP holding 3 seats
• more or less the status quo in both southwestern and northern Ontario
• Quebec results appear similar in ways to 2015 and to 2000.  In 2000, the Liberals and BQ both got similar popular votes in the range of 40% and split the seats about evenly; Conservatives are polling consistently at the same level they were in Quebec in 2015.  So I assume the Conservatives again win 12 seats, the NDP and the PPC each take 1 seat and the remaining 64 seats are split evenly at 32 each for the Liberals and BQ
• in the Atlantic, I have the Liberals holding onto 20 seats, with 9 going Conservative and 3 to the NDP
• in the North, I really just took a shot in the dark based on past trends and said Liberals 2, NDP 1.

In this scenario a Liberal+NDP+Green combination would be 171 seats to 167 for all others; a plausible arrangement which would avoid the Liberal nightmare of needing the NDP, Greens and the BQ to clinch the magic number.  But there is virtually no margin for error here.  I suspect we will not know the form of our government for several days or perhaps weeks after the election as some negotiations will likely be required, and indeed whether or not a certain grouping of parties has 170 seats may only be determined by a recount.  This could be somewhat moot if the Liberals try to govern on a issue-by-issue basis.