tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post5029782589315145210..comments2023-10-28T11:29:07.881-03:00Comments on Politics from a New Brunswick perspective: New CRA/TJ poll looks good for PCsnbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-33476444887540498332010-09-20T03:24:20.219-03:002010-09-20T03:24:20.219-03:00Daniell you must have been in Riverview...lol (jok...Daniell you must have been in Riverview...lol (joke) seriously though She's all red and white in Miramichi Center cant speak for south west miramichi but John Foran is as safe as a liberal seat your gonna get.onthewatchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02739856115774821160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-33662895099262668002010-09-20T03:20:32.495-03:002010-09-20T03:20:32.495-03:00I don't know where your getting your info but ...I don't know where your getting your info but your dead wrong on your Miramichi Center prediction, I drove around the riding today it's a sea of red and white the talk of the riding is John Foran is a man of the people and he's going back in very strong take that to the bankonthewatchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02739856115774821160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-767296053009587792010-09-07T00:27:00.195-03:002010-09-07T00:27:00.195-03:00It is because Roger Duguay was a past Catholic pr...It is because Roger Duguay was a past Catholic priest in those northern francophone communities in Miramichi Bay-Neguac riding and was very popular. He just wasn't known to the anglophone communities of the lower end of the riding. It really didn't have anything to do with anglophone/francophone issue! As for Tracadie-Sheila, he was also a a parrish priest there and also has roots.<br /><br />Daniel you are right on about Southwest Miramichi and Miramichi-Centre. The pendulum has swung and it's over for the Liberals there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-43387190942935782182010-09-06T23:33:59.557-03:002010-09-06T23:33:59.557-03:00What are the 'toss up' ridings in your ana...What are the 'toss up' ridings in your analysis?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02326967513691704435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-18591592174915595762010-09-06T22:50:56.426-03:002010-09-06T22:50:56.426-03:00I'm not trying to imply that Duguay is necessa...I'm not trying to imply that Duguay is necessarily "unpalatable" to anglophones - but its a simple fact that in 2006 he did very well in the francophone areas of Miramichi-Neguac - and got almost no votes at all in the anglophone areas. I wasn't there so I can't say why that would have been. So, all things being equal, if the guy has a lot of roots and connections in both ridings - why not run in a riding that is totally francophone rather than in one where one third of the riding is a dead zone?DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-76034800001042246222010-09-06T22:08:39.803-03:002010-09-06T22:08:39.803-03:00Speaking of the Miramichi, I headed up there this ...Speaking of the Miramichi, I headed up there this weekend. If the number of lawn signs is any indication, the Liberals are going to get curb-stomped in Southwest Miramichi and in Miramichi Centre - continuing the Miramichi tradition of turning violently against every cabinet minister who has represented them in the past two decades.danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-69886942031392634742010-09-06T21:53:14.941-03:002010-09-06T21:53:14.941-03:00I'm not sure why DL thinks that Duguay's f...I'm not sure why DL thinks that Duguay's francophone background would immediately make him unpalatable to the anglophones in Miramichi Bay-Neguac; they sure don't have a problem voting for Madame Carmel Robichaud.danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-55096336831972729022010-09-06T18:00:10.086-03:002010-09-06T18:00:10.086-03:00You are right DL. Roger Duguay won 6 polls of the...You are right DL. Roger Duguay won 6 polls of the francophone side of the riding of Miramichi Bay-Neguac and came in second in about 6 other polls. However his 1750+ votes will by more than two thirds go to the young and well liked new PC candidate Serge Robichaud. These voters will not vote(and did not the last time) for the veteran Carmel Robichaud who has lost considerable support in the riding because of her poor performance and demotion from a inner cabinet post to backbencher/deputy speaker.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-89960857253469910932010-09-06T16:04:02.747-03:002010-09-06T16:04:02.747-03:00"Several readers have written to indicate wha..."Several readers have written to indicate what I also thought to be true - that Roger Duguay has made a big mistake by choosing this riding to run in. If he had run in Miramichi Bay-Neguac and taken votes from the Liberal he would have won."<br /><br />Can I give a possible explanation for the choice of ridings? The thing about Miramichi May-Neguac is that it is a riding that only two-thirds francophone and one third is anglophone. When Duguay ran there last time, he won the francophone parts of the riding but was annihilated in the anglo areas. I think the Duguay decided to run in Tracadie-Sheila because he has a lot of roots there are well and it is also just about the most francophone riding in NB being literally 99% French. If he can do as well there as he did in the French part of Miramichi-Neguac - he will win easily. But its hard to win with 35% of the vote totally against you right from the get-go.DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-37481687030919649372010-09-06T11:30:09.665-03:002010-09-06T11:30:09.665-03:00Well, well what can a week do! My totl numbers ar...Well, well what can a week do! My totl numbers are the same as yours: PC: 24(13 safe & 11 lean), Libs: 23(15 safe & 8 lean) & Toss-Up 8. This means they are still 27 seats on the battle front. However, I still have differences on 15 ridings: Dalhousie-Rest. East & Moncton East are Safe Lib; Miramichi-Bay du Vin, Dieppe Centre-Lewis. & Grand Falls-Drm.-St. And. are Lean Libs. Nepisiguit is Leans Lib., Tracadie-Sheila is still Toss-Up. Mir. bay-neguac is Leans PC, Mir. Centre is Safe PC, Southwest Mir. is Leans PC, Rogersville-Kouch. is still Toss-Up, Moncton-west is Leans Lib. Moncton-North is Leans PC. St. John-Fundy is still Toss-Up. York is still Toss-Up. Out of your 9 changes, I agree with 5 of the changes but in essence the 4 others could sway me as time passes except for Miramichi-Centre. They are still 11 other ridings that I have different sources & knowledge that lead me to different predictions. Your regional breakdown i believe is fairly close. My regional breakdown is North: Liberal leading by 3 seats with 4 Toss-Up, Moncton: PC's lead by 1 seat. South: PC's lead by 2 with 4 Toss-Up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com