tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post115743468473205194..comments2023-10-28T11:29:07.881-03:00Comments on Politics from a New Brunswick perspective: With no NDP on the ballot, do the Liberals gain?nbpoliticohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157639587949886992006-09-07T11:33:00.000-03:002006-09-07T11:33:00.000-03:00I agree with anonymous who predicted 34 PC21 LIB0 ...I agree with anonymous who predicted <BR/>34 PC<BR/>21 LIB<BR/>0 NDP<BR/><BR/>And it could be worse yet for the Grits. We hear the Campbellton Liberals are feuding - wanted another candidate - and of course picking on their own candidate when he is ill is hardly the compassion of anyone attempting to be like M. Robichaud aka T Louis.<BR/><BR/>There are some safe Liberal seats - The Tories have an outside chance in Dalhousie because of a weak Liberal MLA but the Tory candidate is not that well known (even if he is a well known doctor). Rumours are that he has brought in his on people and not all the traditional Tories are that happy. The NDP should have been able to do well here but Aurele Ferlatte and other Labour Leaders are campaigning for the Liberals - this alone may give the Grits the edge here. (They have a paper candidate who barely got her paper work in on time!) Makes one really wonder about St. Saveur area - what is it with Labour and Ms. Brewer? - never mind, it's a rhetorical question. Where is Labour when the NDP needs it?<BR/><BR/>She has an outside chance in her riding but that's all it is. She should be part of the French debate tho as someone who resides in the north where even the less well eduacted who would not comprehend the term "blog" speak both official languages, unilingualism in anyone aspiring to higher office in NB is not a trait to be admired. Still, I suspect the fact she is a woman plays into the way she has been treated by the media.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157511592180496012006-09-05T23:59:00.000-03:002006-09-05T23:59:00.000-03:00The sky is blue, but that doesn't mean the governm...The sky is blue, but that doesn't mean the government will be ;)<BR/><BR/>As I have it right now the Libs have a slight edge with 16 seats to 11 for the Tories, the rest of the seats are either too close to call or just leaning slightly one way or the other.<BR/><BR/>I think a PC majority is possible, but here are the reasons why it may not:<BR/><BR/>1) Voters are dissatisfied with Lord. Though electors may be underwhelmed by Graham, the old adage says governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them<BR/><BR/>2) The Liberal incumbents are stronger. The Tories won 44 seats in 1999 when they had been in the political wilderness for 12 years and started off over 20 points back in the polls. The could not attract quality candidates. Lord has 25 incumbents, 18 of which were elected in 1999. 5 others were elected before and Williams (in a 2001 by-election) and Bruce Fitch (in 2003) were elected after. The Liberals in the other hand recruited an "A team" in 2003 which in my books explains their success as much as auto insurance does. In ridings where it comes down to a toss up provincially and local candidates play the deciding factor, the Liberals have a huge advantage.nbpoliticohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157506445574987292006-09-05T22:34:00.000-03:002006-09-05T22:34:00.000-03:00NB Politico...I said once and I'll say it twice.."...NB Politico...I said once and I'll say it twice.."What is the color of your sky in your world". One word of advice listen to cooker boy and spinks...Claude Williams will probably win one NB biggest majority....Up Route 15, don't be surprise that Saulnier pulls one out of the hat against Graham...Looking at internal/exernal polling and TALKING to Lib/PC candidates...Hell Moncton West candidate Devereux had a ad in T&T which stated "Looking for volunteers" <BR/><BR/>Here's my prediction:<BR/>34 PC<BR/>21 LIB<BR/>0 NDP<BR/><BR/>Why a PC majority:<BR/>1) Graham factor: Duh!<BR/>2) Liberal volunteer are taking a break this time around<BR/>3) No thirst for change<BR/>4) PC not making many campaign mistakes<BR/>5) Francis McGuire fires Lib campaign team midwayAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157490013367815392006-09-05T18:00:00.000-03:002006-09-05T18:00:00.000-03:00Although I am not impressed by Liberal's campaigni...Although I am not impressed by Liberal's campaigning so far but anyone is better than another 4 years of Bernard Lord.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157488904708791462006-09-05T17:41:00.000-03:002006-09-05T17:41:00.000-03:00Very good evaluating for Kent SouthVery good evaluating for Kent SouthAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157468112916269962006-09-05T11:55:00.000-03:002006-09-05T11:55:00.000-03:00I think you first should look at historical demogr...I think you first should look at historical demographics. In other words, how many females have been sent to the Legislative Assembly by New Brunswick francophone ridings in the last 20 years? That is where you will find your answer.scotthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02243209351941311552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157464740089553412006-09-05T10:59:00.000-03:002006-09-05T10:59:00.000-03:00I think it is close but leaning Liberal. At the e...I think it is close but leaning Liberal. At the end of the day it could go either way and I may well change it before election day but right now, I think Hebert has the edge.<BR/><BR/>I don't think her ties to oil will hurt her. Her ties are with the "little guys" and that shouldn't hinder her in my view.<BR/><BR/>Your point that Williams was the first PCer to win in decades just goes to show that his hold is likely tenuous.nbpoliticohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09517401409653124082noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30694877.post-1157457597473725182006-09-05T08:59:00.000-03:002006-09-05T08:59:00.000-03:00I think you are over evaluating Kent South.. Nadi...I think you are over evaluating Kent South.. Nadine Hebert is very inexperienced and has major ties to oil. Claude Williams has been a greta MLA and has the Education portfolio. Not to mention he was the first PCer to ein that seat in decades. It will be close but Williams will take it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com