Sunday, June 07, 2009

New Democrats to cruise to victory

If polls are to believed the NDP will have a convincing win on Tuesday night in Nova Scotia.

My previous post predicted the NDP would be on the cusp of a majority (winning 26 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly gives you a majority if there is an opposition speaker and a minority with a government one) when the votes are counted.

Since there have been two new polls.

A CRA poll showed that in the last two weeks of May, the NDP surged substantially. Numbers from their early May poll and degree of change are in brackets:

NDP 44 (+7 from 37)
Lib 28 (-3 from 31)
PC 26 (-2 from 28)

An Angus Reid poll issued a few days later shows the NDP at an incredible 47, the Liberals at 26 and the PCs at 23.

If the NDP really are at 47%, things would be huge. If we were to assume the NDP was at 70% in the HRM, they would still be running at 35% everywhere else (higher than they ever have before). A more realistic number for the NDP would be 55% in the HRM (compared to 46.5% last time), which would give them nearly 43% in the rest of Nova Scotia.

Therefore, my revised prediction would be as follows:

NDP 36
Lib 10
PC 6

So the final results were NDP 31, Lib 11, PC 10. Things actually turned out pretty well as I expected, except the Liberals did better in the HRM than I thought at the expense of the NDP and the PCs did better in Cape Breton than I thought at the expense of the Liberals.